I recently came across some fascinating data regarding organic search traffic trends, and I can’t wait to share it with you. Contrary to some alarming reports, organic search traffic has only dipped by 2.5% year over year, far from the drastic declines we often hear about, ranging from 25% to 60%. This significant insight comes from a comprehensive study conducted by Graphite using Similarweb data from a plethora of the largest U.S. websites.
This revelation certainly questions the exaggerated claims that the rise of AI tools, like ChatGPT, is rapidly taking over traditional search methods and rendering SEO obsolete.
What’s really happening? Many have suggested through surveys and anecdotes that organic traffic is crumbling, with large language models diverting user searches away from traditional search engines. However, the data collected by Graphite tells a different and more reassuring story.
In their study, Graphite utilized Similarweb’s visit data to analyze organic search traffic from the top 40,000 U.S. sites over periods from February to December 2024 and January to November 2025. The findings revealed a minor decrease rather than a major disruption.
Google’s stance aligns with these findings as well. The company stated in August 2025 that organic click volumes were largely stable year over year.
By the numbers. Traffic patterns differ significantly by the size of the sites. The largest sites, ranking within the top 10, witnessed a 1.6% increase in organic traffic. Mid-sized publishers, particularly those ranked between the top 100 and 10,000, faced more noticeable declines.
- Organic SEO traffic: -2.5% YoY
- Search engine traffic overall (2025): +0.4%
- Google traffic (2025): +0.8%
- Organic vs. paid clicks: ~90% organic, ~10% ads
- AI Overview CTR impact: -35% when present
- AI Overview prevalence: ~30% of SERPs
AI Overviews: Impact but not devastation. While AI Overviews do affect click-through rates when they occur, their presence isn’t as widespread as often presumed.
- AI Overviews are featured in roughly 30% of search queries, predominantly informational ones.
- Commercial and transactional search terms are notably less impacted.
Google ads aren’t “stealing” organic clicks. There’s a growing belief that Google is redirecting organic traffic towards its paid ads. However, data suggests only a slight shift.
- The percentage of clicks on ads increased by about two points.
- Despite this, organic results still garner nearly ten times more clicks than paid ads do.
Why this matters. SEO remains an immensely valuable channel. While AI is transforming the presentation and user interaction with search results, the demand for search isn’t disappearing. What’s evolving is SEO itself, with more SERP features, AI-driven answers, and heightened competition for fewer clicks, particularly on informational queries. Now more than ever, effective strategy is crucial.
About the data. This analysis is grounded in Similarweb traffic estimates for over 40,000 of the largest U.S. sites, utilizing a blend of opt-in user panels, ISP and mobile carrier data, public web signals, and direct site measurements. For accuracy, Graphite compared Similarweb’s trends with first-party data from Google Search Console and Google Analytics across various websites, discovering a median correlation of 0.86.
Curious about the complete analysis? Check out Debunking The Myth That Search Is Dying
Inspired by this post on Search Engine Land.
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